H-1B and Green Card Rules: Our Take on Bay Area Housing

Our take: the fear around H-1B and green card policy is rational, and it's one real factor in Bay Area housing, alongside mortgage rates above 7% and fewer tech-services jobs. Through August, county median prices held or rose, even where sales slowed. So we'd decide on financing, how long you'd hold and, if it applies, your immigration path, not on the headlines.

Why the fear is rational

If your income depends on a work visa, a 30-year mortgage now sits next to several short clocks. If an H-1B job ends, current rules may give you up to about two months to find a new employer or make other plans, but that grace period isn't guaranteed. Job-based green card waits are long, and this fall they got less predictable. A new fee and a new lottery are changing how employers hire. When a wrong guess could force a rushed decision about your home, caution isn't panic. It's arithmetic.

In our view, that caution shows up mainly as waiting. Headlines move confidence faster than fundamentals, but confidence is part of the market.

What changed, and where it stands

As of October 15, 2026:

• The $100,000 H-1B fee is blocked for now. It applies to certain new petitions, not to visas already issued. Two federal courts have blocked it, one upheld it, and appeals are pending. The administration has extended it through September 2027 and says it will collect the fee if the court orders are lifted.
• The H-1B lottery now favors higher pay. Since February, higher-paying job offers get better odds.
• The grace period after a job ends still exists. A September proposal would end it. It is not final.
• Work permits: gaps possible now. H-1B extensions: tougher reviews proposed. Many work permits no longer stay valid while a renewal is pending, so H-4 visa holders and others who rely on one can be left without the right to work during a slow renewal. That change is being challenged in court. A separate proposal, not final, would review every H-1B extension like a brand-new application, and the government expects slower decisions.
• Green cards are slower and less certain. Since May, the immigration agency has narrowed when it approves green cards for people already in the U.S. Immigration lawyers read the change as still open to H-1B holders, with more to prove, and a lawsuit challenges it. In October, approval for the two main job-based green cards moved further out for applicants from most countries, though many can still file their applications this month.

How it reaches Bay Area housing

Financing. Since late May 2025, government-backed FHA loans are no longer available to non-permanent residents, including H-1B holders. Standard (conventional) loans are still available to them on the same terms as for citizens. In Santa Clara and San Mateo counties, a 2026 loan of more than about $1.25 million on a single-unit home is a "jumbo" loan, and jumbo lenders set their own visa rules. In June, a federal regulator said in guidance (not a new law) that lenders may consider whether a borrower is allowed to work when judging whether they can repay.

Hiring. In our view, the bigger long-run channel is where employers put jobs. Rest of World reported that large U.S. tech companies expanded hiring in offices outside the U.S. as H-1B costs and scrutiny rose. Nobody knows yet how much that will matter here.

Confidence. In October 2025, an H-1B software engineer told KQED that with this much uncertainty, long-term commitments like buying a house are off the table.

What the fundamentals say

Prices and sales (California Association of Realtors, August 2026, single-family homes):

• Santa Clara County: median price $1.9M, flat from a year earlier. Sales down 13.0%, with a median 12 days on market. At August's sales pace, the homes for sale would sell in about two months.
• San Mateo County: median price $2.25M, up 13.2%. Sales up 1.5%. At August's sales pace, the homes for sale would sell in under two months.

Jobs. In the San Jose metro area, unemployment was 4.3% in August, lower than a year earlier, but jobs at tech services firms fell about 3% from a year earlier.

Rates and demand. Freddie Mac's average 30-year mortgage rate was 7.40% on October 15, up from 6.27% a year ago. Nationally, consumer confidence fell in early October, according to the University of Michigan's survey.

Our read: higher rates, fewer tech-services jobs, weak confidence and policy uncertainty are all weighing on Bay Area buyers right now. We haven't found data showing how much of that comes from immigration policy, so we won't pin it on any one cause. So far, Santa Clara's slowdown shows up in how many homes sell, not in what they sell for. For city-level numbers, see our area pages.

What this means for buyers

The test is the same for every buyer: would the purchase still work if your job or plans changed? If a visa or a pending green card is part of that picture, ask an immigration attorney where your case stands and how much time you have. The steps we'd take with any buyer:

• Get a full loan approval before you shop. Have the lender review your actual documents and tell you which loans you qualify for today. If a visa or work permit is part of your application, ask how the lender treats one that expires soon, and whether a jumbo loan adds conditions.
• Stress-test against a job change. Could you carry the payment at today's rates through a job search? Size your savings cushion for a realistic search, not a best case.
• Match the purchase to how long you'd hold. If you might need to sell within two or three years, buying and selling costs matter more than the rate, and renting longer can be the better call.
• If the plan holds up, negotiate like it. Where sales have slowed, there can be more room to negotiate. In 2025, we closed a purchase $473K under the original asking price with an offer backed by a written valuation breakdown. Every negotiation is different; that result isn't a promise.

Our buying plan shows how we prepare a purchase before the first offer.

What this means for sellers

Through August, county median prices held or rose, even as Santa Clara County sales fell 13.0%. In our view, that makes pricing and preparation matter more than the headlines. Judge every offer on price, terms and financing, the same way for every buyer. If any offer asks for extra time to secure the loan, a full loan approval is a fair thing to ask for. A buyer's citizenship or visa status isn't part of that call. See what your home is worth.